An Approach to Support Negotiation Processes with Imprecise Information Multicriteria Additive Models

This paper discusses the possible uses of the VIP (Variable Interdependent Parameters) Analysis software and methodology in negotiation support. VIP Analysis is a decision support tool that incorporates complementary approaches to deal with the aggregation of multi-criteria performances under imprecise information. Its purpose is to support the evaluation of a discrete set of alternatives according to multi-attribute additive value functions. We propose extensions of the methodology of VIP Analysis to address explicitly the differences among the actors in terms of the weights space.     

Problems of consumer protection against unfair advertising under Italian law

The present paper gives a critical survey of the main trends in the correction of unfair advertising under Italian law. From the viewpoint of consumer interest, such trends appear unsatisfactory in so far as they refer to an average consumer standard, a concept that results in too limited legal intervention. Aside from this, consumer associations and groups are still barred from access to legal action under unfair competition law. Thus, the most adequate legal model to date, seems to be the one founded on the administrative authorization of advertising, which embodies a preventive control of advertisements. Discussed also are self-regulation norms and practices, whose recent improvement is nevertheless insufficient to overcome structural defects.

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Probleme des Verbraucherschutzes gegenüber unlauterer Werbung im italienischen Recht

Zusammenfassung In Italien gibt es kein auf die Belange des Verbraucherschutzes zugeschnittenes Werberecht. Täuschende und irreführende Werbeangaben gegenüber Verbrauchern werden unter bestimmten Umständen als »unlauterer Wettbewerb« behandelt. Das italienische Recht regelt dabei nur solche Werbeaussagen, die ganz bestimmte Tatsachen enthalten, womit also Übertreibungen auch täuschenden Inhalts keiner Rechtskontrolle unterliegen. Umgekehrt fehlt ein Grundsatz, daß die Werbung ein Mindestmaß an Informationen enthalten muß; das Unterlassen von Angaben wird nicht als Täuschung angesehen. Die Irreführung wird nicht an den von einer Werbebotschaft betroffenen Verbrauchern gemessen, sondern an einem fiktiven Maßstab des »Durchschnittsverbrauchers«.Der Autor kritisiert diese Voraussetzungen des Irreführungsverbotes im italienischen Recht und weist auf Widersprüche in den Begründungszusammenhängen, aber auch auf neue Tendenzen hin. Das Werbestrafrecht kennt in einigen Bereichen strengere Maßstäbe.Die Rechtsdurchsetzung im italienischen Recht weist viele Lücken auf. So haben Verbraucherverbände kein Klagerecht. Eine präventive Werbekontrolle findet praktisch nicht statt. Es sollte deshalb überlegt werden, die verwaltungsrechtliche Kontrolle der Werbung zu erweitern.Die inzwischen auch in Italien ausgebaute Werbeselbstkontrolle befriedigt vom Verbraucherstandpunkt aus nicht. Die Selbstbeschränkungsabkommen sind rechtlich nicht verbindlich. Nur als Ergänzung, nicht aber als Ersatz einer staatlichen Werbekontrolle erscheinen sie sinnvoll.

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Gustavo Ghidini is Professor of Law at the University of Modena, Italy. His address is: Via C. Battisti 8, I-20122 Milan, Italy. In 1973 he became a founder of the Comitato Difesa Consumatori, an association now member of Bureau Européen des Unions de Consommateurs (B. E. U. C.).     

Intraregional Spillovers in South America: Is Brazil Systemic After All?

The high business cycle correlation between Brazil (the large neighbour in South America) and other countries in the region has been a frequent source of concern for policymakers, as it has been viewed as evidence of the large influence of the former country on its neighbours. This paper studies the importance of such influence, documenting trade linkages over the last two decades and quantifying spillover effects in a vector autoregression setting. We find that, after controlling for common external factors, spillovers from Brazil are only relevant for Southern Cone economies (especially Mercosur's members) and Peru, but not for the rest of South America, and these findings are consistent with the extent of trade linkages between these countries. We find also that spillovers can take two different forms: the transmission of Brazil‐specific shocks and the amplification of global shocks – through their impact on Brazil's output. Finally, we also find suggestive evidence that depreciations of Brazil's currency may not have significant impact on output of its key trading partners.     

Job Search Channels,Neighborhood Effects,and Wages Inequality in Developing Countries: The Colombian Case

This paper analyzes the relationship between social networks and the probability of finding a job. We explore geographic closeness as the social interaction to explain the job search function. Using data from Colombia in 2009, we calculate how neighborhoods have an effect on the channel used to find a job (social network versus no social network). In addition, we study how wage premium relates to using a social network in finding a job, exploring the inequality that can arise using a different job search method. Our results show that neighborhood affects the individual's job search method and that referred workers earn less at the bottom of the wage distribution with respect to non‐referred workers. Colombia presents persistent high levels of informality and inequality with the existence of spatial clusters that impose important social and economic costs with strong informational asymmetries on the job market.     

The stock of external sovereign debt: Can we take the data at ‘face value’?

The stock of sovereign debt is typically measured at face value. Defined as the undiscounted sum of future principal repayments, face values are misleading when debts are issued with different contractual forms or maturities. In this paper, we construct alternative measures of the stock of external sovereign debt for 100 developing countries from 1979 through 2006 that correct for differences in contractual form and maturity. We show that our alternative measures: (1) paint a very different quantitative, and in some cases also qualitative, picture of the stock of developing country external sovereign debt; (2) often invert rankings of indebtedness across countries, which historically defined eligibility for debt forgiveness; (3) indicate that the empirical performance of the benchmark quantitative model of sovereign debt deteriorates by roughly 50% once model-consistent measures of debt are used; (4) show how the spread of aggregation clauses in debt contracts that award creditors voting power in proportion to the contractual face value may introduce inefficiencies into the process of restructuring sovereign debts; and (5) illustrate how countries have manipulated their debt issuance to meet fiscal targets written in terms of face values.     

Regime-shifts and post-float inflation dynamics of Australia

Australia's inflation rate and inflation uncertainty during the post-float era 1983Q3-2006Q4 have acted as important barometers of Australia's macroeconomic performance. The conceptualization and measurement of the nexus between inflation and inflation uncertainty is subject to complex dynamics. We use the Markov regime switching heteroscedasticity (MRSH) model to capture long-run stochastic trend and short-run noisy components. This allows us to conclude that in post-float Australia the results deviate significantly from the mainstream Friedman paradigm on inflation and its uncertainty. We also critically review the plausibility of rival paradigms e.g. Keynesian-Mundell-Fleming, Friedman-Ball, Cukierman-Meltzer and Holland, explaining this paradoxical behavior. The analyses presented here provide valuable insights to policymakers grappling with the challenge of designing monetary policy to combat the adverse effects of inflation and inflation uncertainty for Australia emerging out of the global financial crisis.     

Two tales on human capital and knowledge spillovers: the case of the US and Brazil

This article uses a quasi-Mincerian approach to verify whether the concentration of college-educated individuals employed in the business support services sector and in the own sector contributes to increased productivity in other sectors of the economy. We estimate the returns to education using data from the 2008 US Current Population Survey (March supplement) and from the 2008 Brazilian household survey. This article finds evidence of a positive and significant human capital sectorial spillover effect, which is consistent with Acemoglu’s (1996) conjecture. The sectorial concentration of highly educated workers contributes to increase wages for all workers. This study also finds evidence of increasing returns to education in Brazil and diminishing returns to education in the United States. This finding may be explained by differences in supply of skilled workers in both economies. In addition, the short supply of highly skilled workers in Brazil likely explains the importance of the spillover effect from the business supporting sector.     

Taxes and Marriage: A Two‐Sided Search Analysis*

This article analyzes the effects of differential tax treatment of married and single individuals in the United States on marriage formation and composition, divorce, and labor supply. We develop a marriage‐market model with search frictions and heterogeneous agents that is sufficiently rich to capture key elements of the problem under consideration. We then calibrate the model and use it to evaluate the quantitative effects of several tax reforms aimed at making the tax law neutral with respect to marital status. We find that these reforms (i) systematically increase the labor supply of married females, with changes ranging from 0.3 to 10.1 percent; (ii) have substantial effects on the correlation of spouses’ incomes, which changes from 0.2 to values between 0.185 and 0.334; (iii) can lead to either an increase or decrease in the fraction of people married, with changes that range from ?0.6 to 2.4 percent.     

Toward farm-based policy analysis: concepts applied in Haiti

Many policies – on the delivery of inputs or on marketing systems, credit, or extension – influence the potential utilization of new technologies. Through 'farm-based policy analysis' it is possible to use data generated in on-farm research (OFR) to identify policy constraints to the use of new technologies, and to effectively communicate that information to policy makers. This paper describes a tentative framework for farm-based policy analysis and suggests a sequence of five steps for the analysis: (1) identify the policy-induced constraints; (2) determine the rationale behind the policy; (3) identify the decision makers to whom the results should be communicated; (4) identify solutions or policy options; and (5) communicate results to decision makers. A case of farm-based policy analysis from Haiti illustrates the concepts and methods described in the first part of the paper. On-farm experiments in Les Cayes, Haiti, confirmed a response to nitrogen in maize, but adoption of the recommended practice and consequent gains in productivity and income were constrained by the scarcity of urea in the local market. An analysis of local supply and potential local demand for urea and the potential benefits of urea application was conducted, and results communicated to two target groups of decision makers: representatives of the Ministry of Agriculture responsible for fertilizer distribution policy, and representatives of private fertilizer enterprises. These groups responded by making larger supplies of urea available to local farmers. Adoption of the fertilizer recommendation and urea sales increased. The case demonstrates the potential value of farm-based policy analysis building upon data from OFR.     

Análisis del servicio de Urgencias aplicando teoría de líneas de espera

Those responsible for making decisions in hospitals are increasingly aware of the need to efficiently manage hospital systems. An option for analysis is done by queuing models. In this paper is analyzed the service area ER, in a public hospital applying the concepts and relationships of waiting lines. From the model results, it is concluded that in the emergency department does not have the required minimum number of doctors to allow a steady flow of patients. With the model, the minimum required number of doctors is calculated to meet current and future demand for service with the same service time and the same discipline of service. Analytical models, allowing direct understand the relationships between service demand, number of doctors and patient care priority viewed as a queuing system. The work is useful for administrators and managers of hospital systems.